Triangle of Conflict: New "Eastern Questions"
Triangle of Conflict: New „Eastern Questions“
By Riad al Khouri MLitt (Oxon)
Senior Economist and Principal
DEA Inc, Washington DC and Amman
Abstract: the Eastern Question of the late 1800s/early 1900s concerning the fate of the declining Ottoman Empire’s Balkan lands helped trigger fighting leading into WWI, while the Second World War was sparked by problems of how far eastward Germany’s border extended. Both issues are long settled, but others like them continue in new forms, with associated current battlefields lying east and south of mid- and late 20th century places of conflict. Today, in reminders of the past decades’ unfinished geostrategic business, increasingly violent struggles on Europe’s periphery have important implications, especially for Turkey, which confronts more threats, as well as opportunities.
- 1. Background
Though 2014 marked the 100th anniversary of the First World War’s outbreak and this year sees the passing of 70 years since WWII ended, some of the unresolved issues of those conflicts have re-erupted dramatically in the past few months. The 19th century Eastern Question, which triggered WWI (concerning the fate of Balkan Ottoman territory as the Turks retreated), is now largely settled (barring less significant details like Greek-Macedonian friction) as are German-Polish border disputes that ignited the Second World War. Yet, related violent conflict still swirls on the east and south of Europe’s periphery.
The present friction echoes great 20th century’s geostrategic clashes. Among those was the world’s largest tank battle, fought at Kursk in 1943 between European Axis forces and the dominant power to the east, the Soviet Union; the second-largest came in Sinai thirty years later, pitting Western-allied Israel against Egypt, at the time a friend of the USSR. Those two battles directly or otherwise pitted Russian against Western forces; today, in something of a Cold War rerun, the West and its minions once again confront the Russians and others from the east (including Iran). Taking an imaginary line connecting the above two 20th century battles as the base of an isosceles triangle with its apex on the Caspian shore (as shown in the map below), areas included are the theater of what is now in effect a continental war that pits forces from the West against eastern powers.
Triangle of conflict: the 21st century’s new battlefield
However, though friction in this geostrategic triangle is clearly rising, today’s conflict involves unclear battle-lines and murky alliances. The northern part of the area currently sees Russian involvement in the Ukraine (with previous flare-ups around the Caucasus); to the south, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) clashes with various forces, including the pro-Russian Syrian government, while other parts of the region witness different conflicts. The latter includes the Israel-Arab problem, which again flared up this year around Gaza.
- 2. Turkey at the Center
In the middle of these conflict zones geographically lies Turkey, which at the heart of an ailing Ottoman Empire was a focus of clashes in the early 20th century, but today appears as player, not mere victim of strife. For Ankara, the Black Sea is a frontier zone where Turkey faces Russia (the most powerful state in the area, and on which Turks depend for their energy[1]) and the currently unstable Ukraine. Also a key geopolitical factor for Turkey is its direct border with the South Caucasus, where conflicts simmer, and which is crucial for Turkish hard and soft security.[2] However, the greatest current source of volatility in Turkey’s neighborhood is to the south, in Syria and Iraq, especially as concerns the Kurds.
Yet, to what extent is Ankara a regional giant emerging on the world geostrategic stage as opposed to a hapless victim of larger forces, like some of its neighbors? Being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey could be seen as part of the Western camp, but the Turks are more than just another asset in the arsenal of the West.
- 3. Kurdistan in the volatile Middle East
The Kurds have become politically more assertive over the past two decades, aided by positive economic factors, including hydrocarbon wealth in the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan. In May of last year, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) started major oil exports via a new pipeline connected to the Turkish port of Ceyhan; and during June Israel took its first delivery of this crude by tanker.[3] Growing oil sales could increase the KRG’s economic independence and bolster the push to form a separate Kurdish state. The capacity of the pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan has been upgraded, with plans to increase it to 250,000 barrels per day. However, the Kurds are selling crude in defiance of Iraq’s central government in Baghdad, which has repeatedly condemned independent Kurdish oil exports saying that only the Iraqi state marketer can sell the country’s oil. The KRG retorts that Iraq’s constitution allows it to market oil independently, but Baghdad continues to block many KRG oil sales, including recent attempts in Morocco and the United States.
However, Kurdish crude sales to Israel are another story, and the Kurds’ attraction for Israelis goes beyond oil as they openly call for recognition of an independent Kurdistan. Prime Minister Netanyahu said last July that he backed supporting the “Kurdish aspiration for independence,” describing the Kurds as “a fighting people“ that „deserves political independence.” Ankara by contrast opposes an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, but has strong – and lucrative – relations with the KRG.[4]
- 4. The soft underbelly of Russia
Though currently not impacting Turkey in the same way as developments in Kurdistan, Russia’s southwest flank is also unsettled, especially in Ukraine (while potential volatility in the South Caucasus remains). Stabilization and the success of Ukraine’s domestic reform partly depend on the West’s stemming corrupt Ukrainian state fund flows into Western banks. In this way and others, entrenched interests across Europe continue to undermine Kiev, despite propaganda about democratization; meanwhile, Western circles portray Russia as the enemy in the Ukraine neighborhood, as well as around the South Caucasus.
Connecting events in the Ukraine with the Middle East, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abdollahian, expressing concern over Iraq, said last June that the US is trying to create a chaotic atmosphere in the Arab country similar to what it did in Ukraine.“The events in Iraq are following a plan by the US to turn the country into a second Ukraine,“ adding that „what is going on in Iraq is a psychological and media war by ISIL to make the country insecure.“ In similar remarks earlier that month, the Iranian President’s Deputy Chief of Staff Aboutalebi compared present Iraq with Ukraine before Crimea separated, and urged Iraqis to learn from Ukraine’s recent political developments, noting that if the Iraqi people and leaders do not „show sufficient wisdom,“ Iraq will face „a similar fate to Ukraine“ [5] – i.e. partition and the emergence of autonomous zones.
This destabilizing „creative chaos“ has long been espoused in certain Western circles. Some in the West genuinely thought or still believe that they would be promoting democracy by attacking the governments of Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Libya etc; other Westerners’ actions pretended to this but were actually aiming for destabilization as an end in itself. Ultimately, „democratizing“ or naked meddling both create space for forces amenable to the West economically – as well as politically (i.e. opposing Russia and/or Iran).
- 5. Turkey’s Opportunities and Threats
The re-eruption of anti-Russian Cold War, as well as lingering Iran-US tension, feeds the metastasis of Middle Eastern conflict into many places from Kurdistan to the Syrian steppe and Sinai, as well as on Russia’s southwestern flank. Such tension and violence involve outside and regional powers including Turkey, which more than others is potentially impacted by this instability.
Historically, these conflicts are rooted in the pre-WWI question over how Europe should deal with geostrategic gaps first left by Ottoman retreat, followed by the fall of French/British rule in the Middle East after WWII, then by the Cold War’s end. Today’s instability comes in the wake of unraveling American hegemony. In such a situation, sustainable peace and development in the conflict zones around Turkey become more urgent to help secure stability on Europe’s borders. Involving among other things staunching the flow of illegal migration, and securing the sources of and transport routes for hydrocarbons, tourism, and other goods and services traded by Europe, peace and prosperity in the Middle East and on Russia’s southwest flank are Europe’s vital concerns – and Turkey’s in particular. Ankara has much to do to secure this stability, and a lot to gain from it.
Whatever the longer-term issues for Ankara on Russia’s southwest flank, in the short run, Turkey’s more pressing problem is the Middle East. In the late 20th century, Austrian Chancellor Bruno Kreisky said that „no one in Europe today seriously doubts that Middle Eastern conflict is currently a problem of central importance.“[6] Indeed for many inside and outside Europe, including Turkey, several decades later this thought is even more pertinent. Behind the rise of ISIL, American-Iranian friction, and numerous other current Middle East issues, the region’s central problem remains Arab conflict with Israel, a Western outpost. Normal relations with the Arab world will guarantee Israel’s existence. Unfortunately, the more peace deals signed between the Jewish state and her neighbors, and the greater its success in eking out de facto „normalization“ with them and others, including the Kurds, without justice for Palestine, Israel and the rest of the region become less secure. Here too, Ankara could play a major positive role – or see its interests suffer in scenarios of endless war.
- 6. Conclusion
Geopolitical shifts in the post-Soviet area and the Arab Spring’ wake will continue. Among the main beneficiaries of this could be Ankara as an emerging force whose influence in the post-Soviet space and the Middle East increased significantly in the past decade. Turkey has the potential: its population in 2050 will reach about 95 m, with a chance of joining the developed world in terms of income per capita. Militarily, Turkey is also the most powerful state in its neighborhood, boasting a standing army larger than that of any other bordering country.
However, whether Ankara will be able to use this potential depends on how it copes with serious present challenges, including the Kurdish issue.[7] If unfinished Kurdish state formation in the Turkish periphery[8] gets out of control, amid creative chaos as practiced in Libya, Syria etc, Turkey could go back to being the Sick Man of Europe of the 19th century, instead of becoming more powerful and prosperous, as it has been doing for the last decade.
In some scenarios, it would be not only Kurdish state-creation that is in play, but the continuing evolution of Turkey towards prosperous stability. In that respect, one explanation for current diplomatic tension is the adoption by Ankara of a neo-Ottoman vision, which according to a traditional Kemalist Turkish nationalist interpretation is „unrealistic and prone to adventurism.“ [9] in any case, after Ankara’s policy of „zero problems with neighbors“ that emerged less than a decade ago, Turkey since 2011 finds itself amid messy conflict on its border. Defenders of current policy could argue that such projection of power is part of the military-diplomatic dimension of globalization, the ultimate goal of which is to secure influence beyond national borders for greater prosperity. Nevertheless, in becoming involved more deeply with thorny issues such as Kurdish autonomy, Ankara may be leaving itself open to trouble in eastern and southern Anatolia that, with creative chaos introduced by outside powers (including some circles in NATO countries) could eventually threaten Turkey’s own stability. Further problems on Russia’s southern flank could also eventually bother Turkey. Yet, the upside of these situations is the political and economic gains that Ankara could make, as a powerful and stable Turkey influences and does business with the various state and other forces in its periphery that need her help to develop.
***
[1] Isa Afacan „Russia-Turkey Relations: limited cooperation, ongoing rivalries“ Turkish Review August 2014
[2] Adam Balcer „An Audit of Power: Turkey’s Leverage in the Post-Soviet Space“ EDAM Black Sea Discussion Paper April 2012
[3] Reuters „Iraqi Kurdistan sells latest oil, cargo tanker empty near Israel“ August 21 2014
[4] „Israel, Turkey back off pro-Kurd independence stances“ The Daily Star 1 July 2014
[5] Fars News Agency „Deputy FM: US Trying to Turn Iraq into Another Ukraine“ 1 July 2014
[6] Berg M (ed) The Struggle for a Democratic Austria New York City 2000, p 445
[7] Henri Barkey Preventing Conflict over Kurdistan Washington DC 2009
[8] Winston Harris „Chaos in Iraq: Are the Kurds Truly Set to Win?“ Journal of Small Wars August 2014 http://smallwarsjournal.com
[9] Omer Taspinar Turkey’s Middle East Policies: between neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism Carnegie Papers No 10 Beirut 2008